During the 2019 Madrid Climate Conference (COP 25), we presented our work on technology scaling in the context of mitigation strategies in heavy industries in emerging economies. Rodrigo Garcia led the work with the help of his team at ImplementaSur Chile.
Developing such mitigation strategies is urgent for heavy industries due to their high vulnerability to transition risks. These risks include:
- new environmental regulations and resulting market shifts;
- the heavy exposure to international trade in many emerging economies, resulting in a need for companies to be compliant with green regulations in export markets.
The transition to lower GHG emission intensity in the sector is based on four assessments:
- Baselines, involving the identification of barriers, emission-intensive processes, and current technology gaps;
- Goals for a decarbonization pathway in the sector towards 2050 on a scientific basis;
- Technology assessments, establishing which technologies are the most effective and viable for reaching the decarbonization goals;
- Investment plans and associated roadmaps to access relevant funding.
Our work focused on the point of technology assessments and specifically on how to close the gap between business-as-usual in the sector on the one hand and sustainable mitigation pathways on the other hand. Doing so requires technology solutions that are scalable in the industry, and also compatible with the operational reality of the companies in the sector in the target country.
In our initial quantitative analysis, we used marginal abatement curves to rank technologies based on cost-effectiveness. We then matched these findings with the overall abatement potentials of each technology. Afterwards, we applied a broader multi-criteria decision analysis of high relevance to the sector, e.g. including the ROI, initial capital required, and more. We used the combined results to arrive at a final ranking of technologies. Based on the ranking, we established an investment plan of seven technologies that would take the sector on a decarbonization pathway between 2020 and 2050.